Oscars Betting Guide

Art and Sport are completely different things, until you put a betting line on it.

Mar 24, 2022

The 94th Academy Awards airs this Sunday, March 27 2022 at 8:00 pm. However, there are many talked about changes to the broadcast that deviates greatly from the shows of the past and in my opinion do a disservice to the nominees, craftspeople, and films as a whole. There seems to be an obsession by the Academy or whichever network broadcasts the production to appeal to a mass audience, including young folks, and to attract those who wouldn't normally spend their Sunday watching a bunch of famous people dressed up and give speeches. Why is there such a need to appeal to an audience who does not care--this shit is for the nerds, leave it with the nerds. I for one would watch an all-night telecast of every single award with speeches as long as West Side Story's run time.

Regardless of how the broadcast will unfold, there still will be winners and as I wrote about here, this is the one time of the year when my interests intersect. Like every other event that has at least two potential outcomes, there are betting lines and therefore there are people like me who will bet on them. So whether you are a degenerate like me or just want to do a fun Oscars pool with friends this piece is for you -- my 94th Academy Awards betting guide.

Please note: I won't be doing every category and my picks are who I think will win, not who I want to or I think is most deserving. This is strictly for filling out ballots and betting. Full ballot below.

Categories

Best Sound

This category used to be two separate categories, but not enough folks could understand the difference so here we are. The runaway favourite is Dune (-900) and rightfully so. This award normally goes to an epic type of film where the soundscape plays a major part in the theatre experience. Watching Dune at the theatre was a religious experience.

Favourite: Dune -900

My Pick: Dune

Best Production Design

Not just how beautiful can you make the sets but how accurate to the story and time is it? The best production design accentuates character and story. Dune again comes in as a heavy favourite (-350) but I feel as if there are many deserving winners and some not even nominated. The Tragedy of Macbeth is simple, elegant, and notably different looking than the other films on this list but it has the longest odds and a long shot to win. West Side Story has been talked about endlessly online, both good and bad, they come in at (+1400) with a real chance at a big night, and winning this category could clue into what the rest of the evening could look like.

Favourite: Dune -350

My Pick: West Side Story +1400

Best Documentary Feature

There are so many good documentaries every year and they mostly all go under-seen. I have many holes in my watchlist but there seem to only be two options to win this award as every other nominee has such long odds. Summer of Soul and Flee are the two lead horses in this race with Summer of Soul in the lead for now. Two very different films, one being Flee which is the first film ever to be nominated in Documentary Feature, Animated Feature, and International Feature. That type of notoriety leads me to believe that Flee will win something and this may be the category.

Favourite: Summer of Soul -300

My Pick: Flee +240

Best Film Editing

They say the marker of good film editing is not noticing it at all. The layman's eye can notice when something is off with a cut but when it is done right, it often goes unmentioned. This is true for all the nominees and this category often clues into how the voters decided to vote for other major categories. Good editing often means a good film. I would guess a large share of awards will ultimately be given to The Power of the Dog including its excellent film editing.

Favourite: Dune -110

My Pick: The Power of the Dog +350

Best Cinematography

It'll be Dune, and rightfully so. Check that box and move on. If any other film wins I will eat an entire roll of Portra 400 on a live stream.

Favourite: Dune -700

My Pick: Dune -700

Original Screenplay

Here we get a much closer race, odds-wise. You can make a bad movie from a good script but you can't make a good movie from a bad script. Most of these films are excellent and deserving. I am going simply with my taste on this one. However if The Worst Person in the World wins it as a dog, I will be pretty happy with that.

Favourite: Licorice Pizza, Belfast +110

My Pick: Licorice Pizza +110

Adapted Screenplay

CODA is the favourite here and the internet will have you believe it is either the best film of the year or a Disney Channel original, I tend to think it lies somewhere between. At -200 it is a pretty sizeable favourite to win but I will go in a different direction and continue with my thinking that The Power of the Dog will win several awards this evening. Doesn't feel like a safe bet but it's good value.

Favourite: CODA -200

My Pick: The Power of the Dog +162

Supporting Actress

Ariana DeBose from West Side Story is such a heavy favorite (-1200) that it is not even worth thinking about other possible outcomes. Not to mention she has been winning almost every award of the season. Lock it in.

Favourite: Ariana DeBose -1200

My Pick: Ariana DeBose -1200

Best Actress

The current favourite is Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye (-188) and while she has been winning awards on the circuit this one feels like it could be ripe for an upset. The only problem is when looking at the odds it is tough to predict who is good value to bet on. This is a stay-away spot for me.

Favourite: Jessica Chastain -188

My Pick: (longshot) Olivia Coleman +750

Supporting Actor

This feels like a two-way person race between Troy Kotsur (-400) and Kodi Smit-McPhee (+240). Both are worthy performances from films that will undoubtedly be heavily recognized come Sunday. Take the + odds and the value with Smit-McPhee if you're laying money, take Kotsur if you want to try and get a perfect ballot.

Favourite: Troy Kotsur -400

My Pick: Kodi Smit-McPhee +240

Best Actor

Often this award is given as a lifetime achievement. Something to recognize the body of work of an individual over the years. Think Leo winning for The Revenant. More often than not, the moment when a deserving actor wins is for a performance that isn't their best but one that is good enough and deemed worthy of finally getting that win. Will Smith (-900) is the favourite and my choice to win his first Oscar for King Richard. He is such a heavy favourite that it is hard to see him getting upset by another nominee and Will Smith feels like he should have won by now. Previously nominated twice, it will finally be his time.

Favourite: Will Smith -900

My Pick: Will Smith -900

Best Director

Jane Campion has been winning several directing awards for her work with The Power of the Dog, to some varying degrees of cringe...

But she is the odds on favourite (-3300) and while it would be fun to have more of a discussion about other directors deserving to win, it just does not seem likely.

Favourite: Jane Campion -3300

My Pick: Jane Campion -3300

Best Picture

We have finally arrived at the big one. Best Picture. The current favourite is The Power of the Dog (-150) but it is up in the air. CODA has been gaining steam lately and has jumped into the second position (+130) with a very likely chance at coming away with the win. In recent Oscars history, we have gotten a lot of surprises and upsets (surely because of the way the voting works) and in 2022 I will also go with a surprising choice to win Best Picture. Aside from the two films with the shortest odds, every other film could be considered a long shot. We are throwing darts for some glory and going with West Side Story. A remake of an old classic film, made by an acclaimed director who hasn't won anything in recent memory and a musical? They love that shit. I would guess it would be voted second or third on many ballots, giving it enough votes to win the whole thing.

Favourite: The Power of the Dog -150

My Pick: West Side Story +4000